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Simulation and Projection Models

This deals with simulation and projection models and presents a link to UNESCO PORTAL. Handbook for Decentralized Education Planning is the core resource which gives a good understanding of the topic. The EFA Planning Guide is another core resource.

Abstracts

Models 

ANPRO Model included in the Handbook for Decentralized Education Planning.

ANPRO stands for ANalysis and PROjection. The ANPRO Model is designed to provide essential analytical and projection data required in the course of the planning process and also during plan implementation. It produces the data for various purposes, including analysis of how the education sector (or sub-sectors) functions at present, projections of the resources needed to attain the goals and targets, assessment of the feasibility of these goals and targets in terms of human, material and financial resources, and the setting of implementation prioritie


 

Education Policy and Strategy Simulation Model (EPSSim)

EPSSim stands for Education Policy and Strategy Simulation. It is a generic simulation model in order to contribute to the planning and programming of development actions of national education systems. This policy simulation tool provides technical and methodological support to national administrations and specialists in education ministries in their efforts for the formulation of credible education development plans and programmes, in particular in the context of the Education for All (EFA) movement. Being generic, this model, therefore, does not correspond to a specific education system, but constitutes a generic tool with some built-in elements, which can facilitate its adaptation to a particular national education system. It is designed in such a way as to serve as a tool for demonstration and training on the design of medium and longterm education policies and strategies. With slight adaptation, it can also be used for testing the feasibility of the overall education policy of a given country. However, this model needs careful restructuring and necessary adaptation if one wishes to use it as a tool for designing a solid education policy or even a detailed action plan for medium to long term educational development. 

 


 

Laos EFAMOD used for the development of the Lao PDR National Plan of Action for Education for All, 2003-2015 (contact EPR for this Model) 

An education sector strategic model (EFAMOD) has been developed in order to assess the feasibility of achieving EFA goals by 2015 by taking into account the main financial, human and managerial constraints. The EFAMOD is tailored to the Lao PDR economic, social and educational context, and based on EFA objectives and programmes. 

 


 

UNESCO Education Policy and Strategy Simulation Model: User’s Guide; (EPSSim: Excel file

EPSSim stands for Education Policy and Strategy Simulation. It is a generic simulation model in order to contribute to the planning and programming of development actions of national education systems. This policy simulation tool provides technical and methodological support to national administrations and specialists in education ministries in their efforts for the formulation of credible education development plans and programmes, in particular in the context of the Education for All (EFA) movement. Being generic, this model, therefore, does not correspond to a specific education system, but constitutes a generic tool with some built-in elements, which can facilitate its adaptation to a particular national education system. It is designed in such a way as to serve as a tool for demonstration and training on the design of medium and longterm education policies and strategies. With slight adaptation, it can also be used for testing the feasibility of the overall education policy of a given country. However, this model needs careful restructuring and necessary adaptation if one wishes to use it as a tool for designing a solid education policy or even a detailed action plan for medium to long term educational development. 

 


 

Publications related to models

UNESCO. 2005. Education resource projections in the context of sector-wide development planning - Education Policies and Strategies 10. Paris, UNESCO.

This document is the report of a meeting, the “Technical Workshop on Sector-Wide Education Resource Projections” that took place at UNESCO Headquarters (Paris, 6-10 June 2005), with participation of officials and specialists representing 26 Member States, as well as UNESCO field offices. The report is not merely a record of the aforementioned technical workshop. It has been enriched by the countries’ national reports, prepared for presentation at the workshop by country representatives, and which include descriptions of the current status of their national EFA and/or sectoral planning efforts, their partnership arrangements with development agencies and civil society, the financing and expenditure frameworks they have put into place, and an assessment of their capacities in producing resource projections for educational development planning and the further challenges of achieving the EFA goals. Furthermore, this document encompasses the reflections of the UNESCO experts and consultants on their findings and experience in the field, in support of national educational planning, especially in the context of EFA achievement. This report discusses issues arising in national education development, in the changing context of development cooperation for EFA. It describes the rationale and the need for simulation and resource projection tools throughout national development planning processes from the perspective of both national participants and international experts. The challenges identified and the observations made in the countries’ reports illustrate what still needs to be overcome, even where some investment has already been made in resource projection modeling and its utility embraced. Some of the simulation models have been very partial, focusing on only a sub-sector of the education system. Some countries have experienced difficulties in completing simulation models due to a lack of current, reliable data on which to base projections; and lacking adequate information on the resources provided or which are available, it has also been difficult to estimate those finance gaps which remain over and above domestic and external resource mobilisation, thus challenging the production of ‘credible’ EFA plans. (From Introduction in the publication)

 


 

Webster, Thomas. 1997. Cost Analysis and its Use in Simulation of Policy Options: The Papua New Guinea Education Finance Model. International Review of EducationVol. 43, No. 1, pp. 5-23. 

The article describes the structure and operations of a computer simulation programme used in Papua New Guinea that was developed with technical assistance from UNESCO. By establishing baseline data on student enrolments, teacher posts and costs of education at different levels, the model can be used to simulate various policies under consideration and provides output on the likely effects on student flows, teacher requirements and total costs over a ten-year period. The article describes the operations of the primary school model and highlights some of the policy options that can be simulated. It is country-specific but the purpose is to inform readers of how such a programme is helping planners to improve planning and policy-making in a developing country. The author, from Papua New Guinea, worked closely with the UNESCO expert in building the model. (Abstract from Springer

 

 


 

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